The 2019 Federal Election in Canada
The 2019 federal election, held on October 21, marked one of the most contentious and highly polarized political campaigns in Canadian history. The election saw Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party reduced from a majority to a minority government, while Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party won the popular vote but failed to secure enough seats to form government. The New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, held onto its position but with fewer seats than in the previous election. The Bloc Québécois, under Yves-François Blanchet, saw a revival in Quebec, and Elizabeth May’s Green Party achieved its best-ever result. The newly formed People’s Party of Canada (PPC), led by Maxime Bernier, failed to win any seats, marking its debut as a failed experiment in right-wing populism.
Political Situation Before the Election
Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government had governed with a majority since 2015, having run on a platform of optimism, transparency, and progressive social change. During his tenure, Trudeau's government passed significant legislation on issues such as climate change, marijuana legalization, gender equality, and Indigenous rights. However, by 2019, Trudeau’s reputation as a champion of progressive values had been severely tarnished by several controversies, particularly the SNC-Lavalin scandal, pipeline politics, and questions about his leadership style.
SNC-Lavalin Scandal: The SNC-Lavalin affair was a major political scandal that centered around allegations that the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) had pressured then-Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould to intervene in a criminal prosecution of the Quebec engineering firm SNC-Lavalin. Wilson-Raybould’s eventual resignation and her testimony to a parliamentary committee damaged Trudeau’s reputation as a leader committed to transparency and the rule of law. Many Canadians saw the scandal as an example of political interference and favoritism, particularly in light of SNC-Lavalin’s economic importance in Quebec.
Pipeline Politics and Environmental Policy: Trudeau also faced backlash from both sides of the political spectrum over his handling of the energy sector and environmental policy. His government’s purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline in 2018, intended to secure the expansion of oil exports, was seen as a betrayal by environmentalists and Indigenous groups who had supported Trudeau’s strong stance on climate action. At the same time, the decision to delay the project for environmental reviews angered voters in oil-rich provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, who felt that the government was undermining their livelihoods.
Liberal Economic Record: On the economic front, the Trudeau government had introduced several significant reforms aimed at reducing poverty, including a revamped Canada Child Benefit that provided direct financial support to families, and various tax reforms. However, the Liberals had also run consistent deficits, which gave the opposition—especially the Conservatives—ample room to criticize their fiscal management.
In opposition, Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party had been preparing for the 2019 election since 2017, when Scheer succeeded Stephen Harper as party leader. Scheer positioned himself as a traditional conservative, focusing on tax cuts, smaller government, and issues of fiscal responsibility. However, Scheer faced challenges, including internal party divisions, and controversy surrounding his socially conservative views.
Conservative Resurgence: The Conservatives hoped to capitalize on Liberal scandals and regional discontent, particularly in Western Canada, where opposition to Trudeau’s climate policies and support for the energy sector ran high. Scheer also sought to appeal to suburban and middle-class voters by promising to reduce taxes, repeal the carbon tax, and eliminate deficits. However, his campaign struggled with questions about his personal integrity, including revelations about his dual Canadian-American citizenship and past opposition to same-sex marriage.
NDP Decline and Leadership Renewal: The New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, entered the 2019 election in a precarious position. After forming the official opposition in 2011 under the late Jack Layton, the NDP had lost significant ground in the 2015 election, and Singh, the first person of color to lead a federal party in Canada, faced the task of revitalizing the party. While Singh’s personal charisma and progressive platform appealed to many, the NDP struggled with organizational challenges, including funding shortages and limited media exposure.
Bloc Québécois Revival: The Bloc Québécois, which had been nearly decimated in the 2011 and 2015 elections, saw a dramatic resurgence in 2019 under the leadership of Yves-François Blanchet. Blanchet ran a campaign focused on defending Quebec’s interests, opposing federal intrusion into provincial matters, and emphasizing Quebec’s unique identity and environmental concerns. The Bloc’s revival was fueled in part by dissatisfaction with the federalist parties' positions on Quebec nationalism and climate change.
Green Party Growth: The Green Party, led by Elizabeth May, entered the election with momentum after recent provincial successes, particularly in British Columbia and Prince Edward Island. With climate change being a top concern for many voters, May positioned the Greens as the party most serious about environmental action, calling for aggressive policies to combat climate change, including transitioning Canada to a fully renewable energy economy by 2050.
People’s Party of Canada (PPC): The People’s Party of Canada, formed in 2018 by Maxime Bernier after his departure from the Conservative Party, ran on a populist, right-wing platform that included reducing immigration, cutting foreign aid, and promoting free-market economics. Bernier aimed to capitalize on dissatisfaction with mainstream political parties and position the PPC as a voice for disaffected conservatives. However, the PPC struggled with accusations of promoting xenophobia and racism, and Bernier’s controversial rhetoric alienated many voters.
Party Leaders
Justin Trudeau (Liberal Party): Trudeau’s campaign focused on defending his government’s record, particularly on issues like the economy, climate change, and social progress. He framed the election as a choice between a progressive vision for Canada and a return to Harper-era policies under Scheer’s Conservatives. However, Trudeau faced personal attacks from his opponents, particularly over the SNC-Lavalin scandal and revelations that he had worn blackface in the past, which damaged his image as a progressive leader.
Andrew Scheer (Conservative Party): Scheer’s campaign focused on fiscal responsibility, promising to cut taxes, scrap the carbon tax, and balance the budget within five years. Scheer also attacked Trudeau’s character, portraying him as elitist and out of touch with ordinary Canadians. However, Scheer’s socially conservative views and personal controversies, including his dual citizenship and questions about his honesty regarding past statements, became major distractions during the campaign.
Jagmeet Singh (NDP): Singh’s NDP ran on a progressive platform that included universal pharmacare, affordable housing, and a wealth tax on the richest Canadians. Singh’s campaign emphasized inclusivity, social justice, and compassion, and his personal story as a child of immigrants and practicing Sikh resonated with many voters. Singh was widely praised for his strong debate performances, but the NDP faced challenges in maintaining its previous electoral strength, particularly in Quebec.
Yves-François Blanchet (Bloc Québécois): Blanchet led the Bloc Québécois’ resurgence by focusing on Quebec’s distinct interests, particularly in the face of federal policies on energy and climate change that many Quebecers opposed. Blanchet positioned the Bloc as the only party that could truly defend Quebec’s autonomy and identity, particularly against what he described as federal interference in provincial matters.
Elizabeth May (Green Party): May’s Green Party focused almost exclusively on climate change, proposing a comprehensive plan to transition Canada to a green economy and reduce carbon emissions. May’s leadership on environmental issues was widely respected, but the Green Party faced difficulties in expanding its support base beyond environmentally conscious voters.
Maxime Bernier (People’s Party of Canada): Bernier’s PPC ran on a populist, anti-immigration platform, positioning itself as a more radical alternative to the Conservatives. Bernier’s rhetoric, particularly on issues like immigration and multiculturalism, sparked controversy and was seen by many as promoting far-right views. The PPC struggled to gain significant support and was widely regarded as a fringe party.
Issues of the Election
The 2019 election was shaped by several key issues that highlighted the growing polarization in Canadian politics:
Affordability and the Economy: Affordability was a central concern for many voters, with the rising cost of living, housing, and healthcare being key issues. The Liberals focused on middle-class tax relief and child benefits, promising to make life more affordable for families. The Conservatives promised tax cuts and job creation, positioning themselves as the party of fiscal responsibility. The NDP and Greens focused on expanding public services, with Singh advocating for universal pharmacare and May emphasizing a green economy.
Climate Change and Energy Policy: Climate change was a major issue in the 2019 election, particularly after a summer of extreme weather events and growing public concern over environmental sustainability. Trudeau’s Liberals highlighted their carbon pricing plan and environmental investments, while defending their decision to purchase the Trans Mountain pipeline. The Conservatives opposed the carbon tax, promising to repeal it and instead focus on technological innovation to reduce emissions. The NDP and Greens pushed for more aggressive climate action, with the Greens proposing a “Green New Deal” for Canada.
Ethics and Transparency: Trudeau’s handling of the SNC-Lavalin scandal was a central issue throughout the campaign, with the Conservatives and NDP questioning his government’s commitment to transparency and accountability. Trudeau defended his actions, but the scandal cast a shadow over his leadership, particularly when contrasted with his 2015 campaign promise to deliver a more open government.
Immigration and Diversity: Immigration became a key issue during the campaign, particularly in light of the PPC’s opposition to current immigration levels and criticism of multiculturalism. While the Liberals and NDP framed immigration as a positive force for Canada’s future, the Conservatives promised to tighten border security and address irregular immigration, without adopting the more extreme positions of the PPC. Bernier’s hardline stance on immigration and identity politics sparked controversy and led to accusations of promoting xenophobia.
Campaign Strategies
Liberal Party: Trudeau’s campaign focused on a message of continued progress and affordability, promising tax relief for the middle class, investments in healthcare and childcare, and continued action on climate change. Despite the SNC-Lavalin scandal and the blackface controversy, Trudeau sought to present himself as a unifying figure who could move Canada forward. His campaign targeted key swing ridings in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, focusing on suburban voters and progressive urbanites.
Conservative Party: Scheer’s campaign focused on fiscal responsibility, tax cuts, and affordability, attacking Trudeau’s credibility and promising a return to stable government. The Conservatives targeted suburban and rural voters, particularly in Ontario and Western Canada, where dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s policies on energy and climate was strong. However, Scheer’s socially conservative views and personal controversies became a distraction during the campaign, and his inability to connect with Quebec voters limited the party’s success.
New Democratic Party: Singh’s campaign emphasized inclusivity, compassion, and progressive policies, such as universal pharmacare and affordable housing. Singh’s personal charisma and strong debate performances helped boost the NDP’s profile, particularly among younger voters and those disillusioned with both the Liberals and Conservatives. However, the NDP faced financial and organizational challenges, and Singh’s ability to translate his popularity into electoral success was limited by the resurgence of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec.
Bloc Québécois: Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois ran a focused campaign centered on defending Quebec’s interests, opposing federal interference, and championing environmental protection. The Bloc’s resurgence in Quebec was fueled by dissatisfaction with the federalist parties, particularly regarding energy policy and the Trans Mountain pipeline. Blanchet effectively positioned the Bloc as the voice of Quebec’s unique identity and values.
Green Party: May’s Green Party focused almost entirely on climate change, proposing a bold plan to transition Canada to a fully renewable energy economy. The Greens targeted specific ridings where they believed they could make gains, particularly in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. May’s participation in the national leaders’ debates helped raise the party’s profile, but the Greens struggled to expand their support base beyond environmentally conscious voters.
People’s Party of Canada: Bernier’s PPC ran on a populist platform that included reducing immigration, opposing “political correctness,” and promoting free-market economics. The PPC struggled to gain traction, and Bernier’s controversial rhetoric alienated many voters. The party was seen as a fringe movement, and Bernier’s performance in the leaders’ debates did little to improve the party’s standing.
Election Day and Results
On election day, October 21, 2019, the results reflected the deep divisions within Canada’s electorate:
Liberal Party: The Liberals won 157 seats, down from 184 in 2015, but enough to form a minority government. Trudeau’s campaign successfully retained key ridings in Ontario and Quebec, although the party lost significant ground in Western Canada, where the Conservatives dominated. Trudeau’s reduced mandate meant that he would have to work with opposition parties to govern effectively.
Conservative Party: The Conservatives won 121 seats and won the popular vote with 34.3% of the total votes. Despite their strong showing, the Conservatives were unable to translate their popular support into enough seats to form government, largely due to their inability to make significant inroads in Ontario and Quebec. Scheer’s leadership came under scrutiny after the election, particularly for his failure to connect with voters on a personal level.
New Democratic Party: The NDP won 24 seats, a significant drop from the 44 seats they held before the election. Despite Singh’s strong personal performance during the campaign, the NDP lost ground in Quebec, where they were displaced by the resurgent Bloc Québécois. The NDP also struggled in Ontario, where many progressive voters opted for the Liberals to block the Conservatives.
Bloc Québécois: The Bloc Québécois won 32 seats, a dramatic resurgence from the 10 seats they held before the election. Blanchet’s focus on Quebec nationalism and opposition to federal energy policies resonated with Quebec voters, allowing the Bloc to re-establish itself as a major force in the province.
Green Party: The Greens won 3 seats, their best-ever result, but failed to make the major breakthrough they had hoped for. May’s leadership on climate change was widely respected, but the party struggled to expand its support base beyond a few ridings in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada.
People’s Party of Canada: The PPC failed to win any seats, and Maxime Bernier lost his own seat in Beauce, marking a significant defeat for the new party. Bernier’s populist message failed to resonate with voters, and the PPC was widely regarded as a fringe movement.
Aftermath
The 2019 federal election resulted in a Liberal minority government, with Justin Trudeau returning as Prime Minister but with a weakened mandate. The Liberals’ reduced seat count meant that Trudeau would need to work closely with opposition parties, particularly the NDP and Bloc Québécois, to pass legislation and govern effectively.
For the Conservatives, the election was a disappointment. Despite winning the popular vote, Andrew Scheer’s failure to secure enough seats to form government led to internal divisions within the party, and his leadership came under increasing pressure. Scheer would eventually resign as leader in December 2019, triggering a leadership race.
The NDP and Jagmeet Singh faced a mixed result. While the party lost significant ground, Singh’s personal popularity increased during the campaign, and the NDP emerged as a potential kingmaker in the minority Parliament. Singh’s leadership was seen as a bright spot for the party, despite the overall electoral setback.
The Bloc Québécois, under Yves-François Blanchet, re-emerged as a significant force in Quebec, capitalizing on dissatisfaction with the federalist parties. The Bloc’s success marked a revival of Quebec nationalism in federal politics.
The Green Party, while making modest gains, fell short of the major breakthrough it had hoped for. Elizabeth May stepped down as party leader shortly after the election, paving the way for new leadership in the Greens.
The People’s Party of Canada failed to gain traction, and Maxime Bernier’s defeat signaled the end of the PPC’s brief political experiment as a major force. The party’s far-right populist message failed to resonate with mainstream voters, and its future remained uncertain.
Overall, the 2019 election reflected the growing polarization within Canadian politics, with deep regional divisions, particularly between Western Canada and the rest of the country. Justin Trudeau’s second term as Prime Minister would be defined by the need for compromise and collaboration in a minority Parliament, as well as the ongoing challenges of addressing climate change, Indigenous reconciliation, and economic inequality.
Election Party |
Elected Members | # of Candidates | % of Popular Vote | % of Seats |
---|---|---|---|---|
2019 (Oct 21) - Turnout: 65.95 % | ||||
Liberal | 157 | 338 | 33.07 % | 78.5 % |
Conservative | 121 | 338 | 34.41 % | 18.5 % |
Bloc | 32 | 70 | 7.69% | 3.0 % |
NDP | 24 | 10 | 15.93 % | 0.0 % |
Green | 3 | 51 | 6.5% | 0.0 % % |
People's Party | 0 | 10 | 1.64 % | 0.0 % |
Total | 338 | 831 | ||
Government--184, Opposition--154, Majority--164 |
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