The 2015 Federal Election in Canada
The 2015 federal election, held on October 19, 2015, was one of the most significant turning points in Canadian political history. After nearly a decade in power, Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada were ousted by the Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau, who won a surprising majority government. The election brought a dramatic change to the political landscape, with Trudeau’s Liberals rising from third place to the top, the New Democratic Party (NDP) under Tom Mulcair falling to third, and the Bloc Québécois continuing its decline. Elizabeth May of the Green Party retained her seat, but her party remained a minor force. The 2015 election was marked by a strong desire for change, an unusually long campaign period of 78 days, and key issues such as the economy, social justice, civil liberties, and environmental policy.
Political Situation Before the Election
In the years leading up to the 2015 election, Canada’s political environment was shaped by nearly a decade of Conservative rule under Stephen Harper, who had governed since 2006. Harper’s tenure was defined by a focus on economic management, tax cuts, crime reduction, and foreign policy, particularly Canada’s military engagements abroad. However, by 2015, many Canadians were showing signs of “Harper fatigue,” and the government faced growing criticism on several fronts.
Conservative Majority Government: In the 2011 election, Harper’s Conservatives won a majority government after two previous minority mandates. With their majority, the Conservatives implemented a range of conservative policies, including income splitting for families, tough-on-crime laws, and a reduction in corporate taxes. However, Harper’s leadership style—often characterized as secretive, controlling, and highly partisan—alienated many voters. His government was frequently criticized for its centralization of power in the Prime Minister’s Office and its hostility toward environmental regulations and scientific research.
Economic Slowdown: The 2015 election came at a time of economic uncertainty. Canada had experienced a sharp decline in global oil prices, which had a significant impact on oil-dependent provinces like Alberta. While Harper emphasized the Conservatives’ record of fiscal management, particularly in keeping Canada relatively stable during the 2008 global financial crisis, opposition parties argued that the government had failed to diversify the economy and address rising income inequality.
Liberal Party Rebuilding: The Liberal Party, which had dominated Canadian politics for much of the 20th century, had suffered a historic defeat in the 2011 election, falling to third place with only 34 seats under Michael Ignatieff. In 2013, the party chose Justin Trudeau, son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, as its new leader. Initially dismissed by many as inexperienced and light on policy, Trudeau’s charismatic leadership and optimistic message gradually resonated with Canadians, especially as he positioned the Liberals as the party of change.
NDP’s Momentum: The NDP, under Tom Mulcair, had become the Official Opposition for the first time in its history after the 2011 election, thanks largely to the “Orange Wave” in Quebec. Mulcair, known for his sharp debating skills and experience as a Quebec cabinet minister, sought to position the NDP as a credible alternative to the Conservatives. Mulcair focused on presenting the NDP as a responsible, fiscally prudent party, appealing to centrist voters while maintaining progressive policies on issues like healthcare, childcare, and the environment.
Bloc Québécois in Decline: The Bloc Québécois, which had long dominated federal politics in Quebec, was in decline. After a devastating loss in 2011, when the party was reduced to only four seats, Gilles Duceppe returned as leader to try to revive the Bloc’s fortunes. However, the party struggled to regain relevance as Quebecers increasingly turned to the NDP and Liberals.
Party Leaders
Stephen Harper (Conservative Party): Harper, running for a fourth consecutive term, campaigned on his government’s economic record, emphasizing tax cuts, balanced budgets, and Canada’s relative stability during the global financial crisis. However, Harper’s leadership style had become increasingly controversial, with many voters viewing him as overly secretive and controlling. His government’s approach to climate change, civil liberties (particularly through Bill C-51), and foreign policy had also alienated many progressive voters.
Justin Trudeau (Liberal Party): Trudeau, initially underestimated by both opponents and the media, ran a campaign centered on optimism, inclusivity, and change. He promised to invest in infrastructure, cut taxes for the middle class, and introduce progressive social policies, while running deficits for three years to stimulate economic growth. His charisma, youth, and ability to connect with voters helped the Liberals gain significant momentum as the campaign progressed.
Tom Mulcair (NDP): Mulcair, known for his sharp debating skills and principled leadership, began the campaign as the frontrunner. The NDP, buoyed by its strong performance in 2011, positioned itself as a responsible government-in-waiting. Mulcair promised to balance the budget, increase funding for healthcare, and introduce affordable childcare. However, his cautious, centrist approach, particularly on fiscal policy, led some progressive voters to drift toward the Liberals, who offered a bolder platform.
Gilles Duceppe (Bloc Québécois): Duceppe returned to lead the Bloc Québécois after stepping down following the 2011 election. His goal was to restore the Bloc’s relevance in Quebec by defending Quebec’s interests against federal encroachment. However, the Bloc struggled to compete with the NDP and Liberals, as Quebec voters prioritized social and economic issues over sovereignty.
Elizabeth May (Green Party): May, the first Green Party leader to win a seat in the House of Commons (in 2011), focused her campaign on climate change, environmental sustainability, and social justice. While the Greens had never won more than one seat, May’s participation in the national leaders’ debates helped raise the party’s profile, particularly on environmental issues, where the Greens had a clear advantage over the other parties.
Issues of the Election
The 2015 federal election was shaped by several key issues, many of which reflected voter dissatisfaction with the Harper government and a growing desire for change:
The Economy: Economic management was the central issue of the campaign, particularly in light of the slowdown caused by falling oil prices. Harper’s Conservatives framed themselves as the best party to manage the economy, emphasizing their record of tax cuts, balanced budgets, and economic stability. However, Trudeau’s Liberals argued that Harper’s austerity policies had stifled growth, and they promised to run deficits to fund infrastructure projects and stimulate the economy. The NDP offered a middle-ground approach, promising to balance the budget while still increasing social spending.
Taxes and the Middle Class: Trudeau made tax relief for the middle class a central part of his platform, proposing to cut taxes for middle-income earners while raising taxes on the wealthiest Canadians. The Conservatives emphasized their past tax cuts, such as the Universal Child Care Benefit and income-splitting for families. The NDP also promised to raise corporate taxes while protecting middle-class incomes, though their message was overshadowed by the Liberal surge.
Bill C-51 and Civil Liberties: One of the most contentious issues of the campaign was Bill C-51, the government’s anti-terrorism legislation, which expanded the powers of Canada’s intelligence agencies. Harper defended the bill as necessary to protect Canadians from terrorism, but critics argued that it undermined civil liberties and lacked sufficient oversight. Trudeau promised to amend the bill if elected, while Mulcair called for its outright repeal, aligning the NDP with concerns about civil rights.
Environmental Policy and Climate Change: Climate change was a key issue, particularly given the Harper government’s close ties to the oil industry and its lack of action on environmental regulation. Trudeau promised to work with the provinces to implement carbon pricing and take stronger action on climate change. The NDP also pledged ambitious climate action, but the Greens, under Elizabeth May, were the most vocal advocates for environmental sustainability and clean energy.
Change vs. Continuity: The overarching theme of the 2015 election was change. After nearly a decade of Conservative rule, many Canadians were eager for new leadership. Trudeau positioned the Liberals as the party of change, promising to reverse many of Harper’s policies and introduce a more inclusive, transparent government. Harper, on the other hand, argued that his experience and steady hand were needed to guide the country through economic uncertainty and global instability.
Campaign Strategies
Conservative Party: Harper’s campaign focused on the themes of stability, security, and economic management. The Conservatives emphasized their record of tax cuts, job creation, and fiscal responsibility, while painting the Liberals and NDP as inexperienced and reckless. Harper’s team ran a highly negative campaign against Trudeau, with the infamous “Just Not Ready” ads portraying him as unqualified for the job of Prime Minister. Harper also played up concerns about terrorism and security, using Bill C-51 as evidence of his government’s commitment to keeping Canadians safe.
Liberal Party: Trudeau’s Liberals ran an optimistic and energetic campaign centered on the promise of “real change.” Trudeau’s platform included bold promises such as investing in infrastructure, legalizing marijuana, introducing electoral reform, and running deficits to fund economic growth. He also pledged to repeal many of Harper’s policies, including his approach to the environment, foreign policy, and government transparency. Trudeau’s campaign focused on engaging young voters and those disillusioned with the status quo, positioning him as a fresh, dynamic leader who could restore hope in Canadian politics.
New Democratic Party: Mulcair’s NDP began the campaign in a strong position, but the party struggled to maintain its momentum as the election progressed. Mulcair’s decision to run a cautious, centrist campaign, particularly his promise to balance the budget, alienated some progressive voters who were drawn to Trudeau’s more ambitious platform. Mulcair emphasized healthcare, affordable childcare, and climate change, but his message was increasingly overshadowed by the Liberal surge.
Bloc Québécois: Duceppe and the Bloc focused their campaign on defending Quebec’s interests, opposing federal policies they saw as encroaching on provincial jurisdiction, and promoting Quebec sovereignty. However, the Bloc struggled to compete with the NDP and Liberals, both of which were making significant gains in Quebec. The party’s message of sovereignty failed to resonate with many Quebecers, who were more concerned with social and economic issues.
Green Party: Elizabeth May’s Green Party focused on environmental sustainability, climate action, and democratic reform. The Greens targeted specific ridings where they believed they could make gains, particularly in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. May’s participation in the national leaders’ debates helped raise the party’s profile, but the Greens remained a minor player in the broader campaign.
Election Day and Results
On election day, October 19, 2015, the results were a landslide victory for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals:
Liberal Party: The Liberals won 184 seats, up from just 34 in the previous Parliament, securing a majority government. Trudeau’s message of hope, optimism, and change resonated with voters, particularly in Ontario, where the Liberals swept almost every seat, and in Quebec, where they performed strongly. Trudeau’s strong performance during the debates and his promise of middle-class tax relief helped the Liberals surge ahead in the final weeks of the campaign.
Conservative Party: The Conservatives won 99 seats, down from the 166 seats they held before the election. Harper’s campaign, which had focused on security and economic stability, failed to resonate with voters who were eager for change. Shortly after the election, Harper resigned as leader of the Conservative Party.
New Democratic Party: The NDP won 44 seats, a significant decline from the 103 seats they held before the election. Mulcair’s cautious campaign and his commitment to fiscal conservatism disappointed many progressive voters, who shifted their support to the Liberals. The NDP’s losses in Quebec, where they had made significant gains in 2011, were particularly devastating.
Bloc Québécois: The Bloc Québécois won 10 seats, a modest improvement from the 4 seats they held before the election. However, the Bloc remained a minor force in Quebec politics, as many Quebecers turned to the Liberals and NDP.
Green Party: Elizabeth May won re-election in her riding of Saanich—Gulf Islands, retaining the party’s only seat in the House of Commons. Although the Greens did not make significant gains, May’s leadership and focus on environmental issues continued to resonate with a growing segment of the electorate.
Aftermath
The 2015 federal election brought a dramatic change to Canadian politics. Justin Trudeau and the Liberals returned to power with a decisive majority, ending nearly a decade of Conservative rule. Trudeau’s victory was seen as a rejection of Harper’s leadership style and a mandate for change, particularly on issues like climate change, social justice, and government transparency.
For the Conservative Party, the election marked the end of Stephen Harper’s leadership. Harper, who had dominated Canadian politics for nearly a decade, stepped down as party leader, and the Conservatives began a period of rebuilding and introspection.
The NDP, despite entering the campaign as the Official Opposition, suffered a significant defeat. Tom Mulcair’s leadership came under scrutiny after the election, and the party faced internal divisions about its direction and future strategy. Mulcair remained as leader for a time, but his leadership was ultimately challenged in the aftermath of the election.
The Bloc Québécois remained a diminished force in Quebec, as the party struggled to regain its former prominence. Gilles Duceppe resigned as leader after failing to significantly improve the Bloc’s position.
The Green Party, while still a minor player in Canadian politics, saw its profile rise thanks to Elizabeth May’s strong performance in the debates and her re-election in British Columbia. May continued to advocate for environmental sustainability and social justice in the years following the election.
The 2015 election marked a shift in Canadian politics toward more progressive, inclusive policies, and Justin Trudeau’s government would go on to implement significant changes in areas such as climate action, gender equality, and Indigenous reconciliation during its first term in office.
Election Party |
Elected Members | # of Candidates | % of Popular Vote | % of Seats |
---|---|---|---|---|
2015 (Oct 19) - Turnout: 68.3 % | ||||
Liberal | 184 | 338 | 39.47 % | 78.5 % |
Conservative | 99 | 338 | 31.89 % | 18.5 % |
NDP | 44 | 338 | 19.71% | 3.0 % |
Bloc | 10 | 10 | 4.66 % | 0.0 % |
Green | 1 | 51 | 3.45 % | 0.0 % % |
Total | 338 | 831 | ||
Government--184, Opposition--154, Majority--164 |
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